World Cupdate: UEFA Group 5

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Group 5: At the walls of Sarajevo

Participants: Spain, Turkey, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Armenia, Estonia

This group is almost more straightforward than the last.  Spain’s victories haven’t been shutouts but they have had them without fail.  Their last four matches include contests against Belgium and B/H (which is my new trendy abbreviation whose use of the slash mark seems offhand and clerical but actually incisively critiques the ethnic cleavage with which the country remains riven – pass it on), which may prove to be of interest.  But probably not.  Spain’s been on a roll since the Euro 2008, despite having a relatively overrated side, and their fluke loss to the US last month probably won’t break their back.  Indeed my only real complaint is that David Villa is doing too much of their work.  It’s a sign of potential weakness down the road.

Second place is closer, but at this point there’s really nobody close enough to challenge B/H.  Turkey isn’t displaying much of that unbelievable never-say-die attitude that made the Euro Cup so entertaining (a loss for the whole sport, that), Belgium are between coaches and Estonia is certainly out of range – though like their Latvian brethrean I suspect this will be the last time in some while they’re seeded so low.

Then again Turkey would have to sweep their remaining matches to slide into second place (assuming Spain does as well; a Spanish loss at any point would scramble the numbers).  This is not out of the ballpark – they’ve already beat B/H and they have no further matches against Spain.  Belgium is a threat but not an overpowering one.  Then again Turkey walked away with a draw against Estonia so consistent play is clearly not a factor of their qualifying experience.  This is the problem they face, and this is the deficit between raw, aw-shucks enthusiasm and cool professionalism.

Prediction: Spain is certain to automatically qualify.  Now that I’ve gone through the whole thing, though, I’ve talked myself into Turkey for second place.  They have an amazing capacity for surprise and Bosnia and Herzegovina have limped through on relatively easy games.  They are also certain to lose at least one of their remaining four, which Turkey is not.  Also I’m nostalgic for my time in Denmark in 2008 when I watched them once again strike terror through Europe at Vienna.  This whole affair isn’t particularly based on reason anyway.

Also, I know the allusion I attempted to make in the title for this group is inaccurate.  Alas.

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