Euro 2012 Episode V: The Empire’s on Crack (And Other Stories)
3 September 2010
Just in time for some-but-not-all of the first qualifiers to be determined, here’s part two. The oopsie I made in your slippers on Tuesday here.
Group E
Netherlands (World Cup: Final), Sweden (UEFA qualifiers Group 1: 3/6), Finland (Qualifiers Group 4: 3/6), Hungary (Qualifiers Group 1: 4/6), Moldova (Qualifiers Group 2: 6/6), San Marino (Literally the worst team ever)
Sheila, circa 1978. Yes, my mother did used to be Martin Lawrence.
This year, and quite unexpectedly, the Dutch reached the World Cup Final for the first time since my mother danced to the Bee Gees. (I can only assume.) They did this with an unfancied team, after the most faltering of starts, etc etc… It’s big, is what I’m trying to say. Only a year ago the Netherlands’ stars, Wesley Sneijder and Arjen Robben, were being unceremoniously dumped onto the transfer market by Real Madrid, a little taste of humble pie that culminated in a facefull of it for Madrid as the ex-galacticos showed what they could do for their new teams, both Champions League finalists, at Real’s home stadium. I guess there’s a reason the whole Spain squad comes from Barcelona.
Now that the World Cup is through they’re going to lose some people, most especially Van Bronckhorst. (Incidentally, does anyone know the convention for Dutch last names? I know in French you drop the ‘de’ if the name is longer than a syllable – so ‘de Gaulle’ by ‘Lafayette’ – while in German ‘von’ indicates nobility so you’re always supposed to use it.) Hatchet man Mark van Bommel has been named their new captain, though, and everybody else is still on form. They have enough talent to overcome almost any degree of shakiness and the real danger is that, weighed down by scorn over their performance in Johannesburg, they pull back on their physicality too much. Like it or lump it, that’s how they got to the Final in the first place, and as the team reshapes around Robben and Sneijder it’s a useful stopgap.
Unlike some groups they’ll have stout competition. Sweden are under new management and they secured the instant coup of the return of petulant journeyman striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Not only is he a top class player, he’s a top class douchebag: Asked if he was getting his fiancee an engagement present he replied, “She gets Zlatan.” If I was called Zlatan and stood 6’20” I suppose I’d be slightly cocky, too, and Sweden have enough talent to justify him by building a squad around his striking prowess. Young midfielders like Martin Olsson are available in some abundance to fill out the now obligatory 4-2-3-1. (Or they might play two up front with new man Marcus Berg partnering with Ibra, though there’s not much evidence of how they’d work together.) Two goals from Olsson impressively put away Bosnia/Herzegovina in a friendly match in May, and on Ibra’s return Scotland – admittedly understrength, but when aren’t they? – were devastated.
Their partners from Group 1, Hungary, don’t look like challengers. Somewhat sad in a way, considering that Hungary are one of the two or three nations most conspicuous for their lack of international success. But they’re a smallish nation with no well-funded major league to promote their talent and Africa, not Eastern Europe, is now the growth area. They’re impressive enough, but the weak Sweden of 2009 was already too much for them. Sweden will be stronger this year – to say nothing of the Dutch.
One can’t be so sure about Finland. They don’t have much going for them but, not for nothing, they were the only team in qualification that Germany couldn’t beat. They finished a surprisingly strong third a mere four points behind Russia. Then again they drew to Lichtenstein and have never qualified for anything ever, and you’re hard-pressed to find a Finnish “name”. That could be a good thing – a bunch of players with some talent and small egos working together as a team, which is something of a Nordic trademark – but to face the other three in this group you need quality. I’m not sure they have enough.
The Dutch to win. Sweden second. Finland and Hungary have outside chances, but no better than maybe 3:1 or 5:1, respectively.
Key matches: All of them. Even the matches against the crappy teams: this group might come down to goal difference, which means scoring 12 against San Marino matters.
Group F
Croatia (UEFA qualifiers Group 6: 3/6), Greece (World Cup group stage: 3/4), Israel (Qualifiers Group 2: 4/6), Latvia (Qualifiers Group 2: 3/6), Georgia (Qualifiers Group 8: 6/6), Malta (Qualifiers Group 1: 6/6)
A big 2010 reunion here: Greece, Latvia and Israel were respectively 2, 3 and 4 behind Switzerland in Group 2 of the World Cup qualifiers.
Croatia are by some reckonings one of the World’s top ten teams despite missing out on a World Cup playoff spot. They benefit from the consistency of Slavan Bilic, coach since 2006, despite the fact that he’s perpetually thought to be on the verge of resignation (as late as November he was talking up a Premier League move). His record is why: despite the disappointment of 2010 he has a .710 average with only four defeats in thirty-eight matches. Croatia have an embarrassment of riches for such a small nation, with a first team that boasts starters from the best leagues in Europe, including a trio at Tottenham Hotspur. They’ll need a serious inquest into their tactics after a string of middling results but they’ll have the opportunity to experiment a little with Latvia before their home meeting with Greece. (A box of wine and some Kenny G is probably a good place to start.)
The two meetings with Greece will decide which one will qualify automatically – though Croatia and not Greece will be a lock for one or the other of the top two spots. Brand new coach Fernando Santos has domestic experience but will be thrown into the deep end 7 September. In his predecessor’s nine year term, encompassing a 2004 European Championship victory, relatively few players saw action as an established, trusted side was played over and over. That was then: now they’re stale and were found out at the World Cup, where only two players were under 25 (versus eight 30+ and six who had fewer than 10 caps, including two who had never featured for the national team before). The country featured regularly in the advanced stages of European club competition, but the league has suffered lately and is now a lesser Scotland, with Olympiacos besting Panathinakos about once every six years. Constant European play lets the two big clubs buy players from outside Greece, which dilutes the talent pool for the national team. Lately, it’s showed.
Israel and Latvia both finished relatively solidly in an even group for the 2010 World Cup qualifying, mostly because it was also really awful. Latvia did especially well considering they have a squad that boasts nothing in the way of European competitors, while Israel often sends a team to the group stage of the Champions League (this year Hapoel Tel Aviv) but finds itself too Jewish for Asian competition and too poor for European. Either of these teams have an outside chance – but only an outside chance – of stealing a march on Greece. Georgia and Malta do not (indeed I suspect football fans in the latter may wish they’d accepted the chance to fuse with England even after the World Cup).
Croatia should win. I’d like see Latvia or Israel sneak into the playoffs as rank outsiders but it’ll probably be Greece.
Key matches: Croatia against Greece for first; Latvia and Israel against Greece for second.
Group G
England (World Cup: Round of 16), Switzerland (World Cup: Group stage 3/4), Bulgaria (UEFA qualifiers Group 8: 3/6), Wales (Qualifiers Group 4: 4/6), Montenegro (Qualifiers Group 8: 5/6)
Speaking of being on crack, I feel confident enough after England’s friendly win and the following tabloid reports in predicting the Three Lions as runaway winners in 2012 and Brazil 2014.
Why? For the lulz.
A well-researched dramatization of Fabio Capello giving the bad news to a hapless young Englishman.
Fortunately for dear old England, they’ll have the benefit of a slimmed down (and relatively anemic) fixture list. England aren’t so hard to upset, but of the other teams here only Switzerland’s a real contender to take points from them. The Special One allegedly-kind-of-but-not-actually thinks England is doomed under Fabio Capello. He can backpedal all he wants – I don’t think there’s anything wrong with saying that a nation who cannot find the native coaching talent to have a national manage their team has no place in the first rank. Could you imagine Italy having a foreign coach? The Dutch? The Spanish? No, but you can imagine them winning something, too.
Qualification was supposed to feature the departure of the old guard and the arrival of new faces like Jack Wilshere, Adam Johnson and – one can only hope – Tom Cleverley. In the event of the promising youngsters only Johnson and Arsenal defender Kieran Gibbs actually made it into the squad, with Wilshere sent back to the under-21s. Other overlooked players, including Darren Bent and Everton’s Phil Jagielka, did break the final squad, where they’re joined by Joe Hart. Though it’s too early to tell, Hart looks to be the first time England is in safe hands in almost a decade. Assuming he’s as good as his recent form you can expect him to be firmly in goal there for a decade or more.
Below that the group is perhaps the most finely balanced in the competition. At the very bottom I’d lay aside Montenegro due to youth (of the team, not the players); their first competition since independence was the World Cup campaign. There’s no reason they can’t emulate a nation like Slovenia, especially when the Euros expand in 2016, but I don’t see it yet. Switzerland were the only team in the World Cup to take points from Spain but it was an absolute smash-and-grab – and a classic on the level of any of these. Switzerland can’t often be accused of involvement in classics, since their last two World Cups have featured mostly long, dull, grinding games, including their draw against minnows Honduras when a win would have sent them to the round of 16. I don’t know how to say choke in French, Italian or German, but I bet a few people have been practicing.
Bulgaria and Wales are odd things. Both have teams with skill anchored by quality players. Bulgaria feature several talented Petrovs. Wales can call on Robert Earnshaw and Craig Bellamy up-front – the latter, now back in Wales and out of the Premiership entirely, might be moved to focus more on international performance – as well as Gareth Bale, who has been something of a sensation lately. That’s never translated internationally, perhaps as he’s been played at fullback rather than on the wings in midfield. As the Welsh squad thins out space there may be space for Bale to grow into the team, which would be a godsend for them. Aaron Ramsey, sickeningly injured against Stoke in February, should be back at some point in the qualifying campaign. If they can be made to work, these four could carry Wales far indeed.
England to qualify outright, though with nothing near a perfect record. I’ll gives Wales the narrow nod to reach their first European championship ever, though Bulgaria with good odds as well. The Swiss are the favorites if you’re laying money on it but they’re like Midas, only with shit, and I don’t like them. So they don’t qualify. Simple, no?
Key matches: England away to Switzerland; any Wales against Switzerland.
Group H
Portugal (World Cup: Round of 16), Denmark (World Cup: Group E, 3/4), Norway (UEFA qualifiers Group 9: 2/5), Cyprus (Qualifiers Group 8: 4/6), Iceland (Qualifiers Group 9: 5/5)
Another evenly balanced collection. You know, I rather like these five-team groups. Five is a pleasant number, found often in nature, while six is bloated and grotesque. The more you know.
Carlos Queiroz letting us know exactly where we can put our drug tests.
A reunion for Denmark and Portugal, the World Cup qualifiers from UEFA Group 1. Despite finishing behind unfancied Denmark (in a group including Sweden and Hungary), Portugal clawed their way out of the World Cup group stage with draws to Ivory Coast and Brazil before their obligatory 1-0 rout to Spain. Carlos Queiroz remains for now as Portugal coach, which is a lucky break for their opponents, as are the retirements of Deco and Simao. (Watch this space, however: persistent accusations of interference with drug testers have led to a six month ban for Queiroz, which may prove too much for the Portuguese FA to take.) Cristiano Ronaldo remains on good club and solid international form, but the team was unsettled to the very end in South Africa and Ronaldo has never been well-integrated into the national side. He’ll be out injured initially, and their initial squad combines a core of experienced players with several younger, less tested options across the field. Portugal, until now somewhat old, need the experience.
Riddled with injuries and themselves looking even older than they actually were, their qualifiying group betters Denmark simply weren’t. Wholly deserving their demolition against Japan, they’ll look to engage in the same kind of comprehensive reconstruction as England, France and Italy. They’ll keep well-respected coach Morten Olsen through the 2012 campaign,by which time he’ll have the longest tenure of any national team manager in the country’s history. He’ll have his work cut out for him: the venerable but aged Jon Dahl Tomasson has retired and Dennis Rommedahl, at 32, can’t be far behind. With Bendtner out against Iceland there are no other stand outs in front, and both Rommedahl and Poulsen have more individual caps than the rest of the forwards and midfielders combined.
Fortunately, both teams’ meetings are interspersed with six competitive friendlies. Norway is the only other side capable of mounting any challenge and managed second place in the World Cup qualifying group only after a spastic display against Macedonia and Scotland. This group has real teams. The defining characteristic of the other three is not their ability to qualify – they won’t – but whether they take points off the two leaders. That will make the difference.
Olsen will have his work cut out for him, but is trusted and has some young talent coming through. He’s also relatively adaptable, which is good, as a thin bench will continue to force it upon him. Queiroz did barely enough not to get fired with a team that I could get to the World Cup Finals. (Half of which he missed, having been banned from the first two by his own country.) This is a case where the manager not merely matters but where switching them would almost guarantee a reversed result. Denmark qualifies automatically. Portugal second and a contender for best runner-up.
Key matches: Denmark and Portugal and not much else.
Group I
Spain (You damn well know), Czech Republic (UEFA qualifying Group 3: 3/6), Scotland (Qualifying Group 9: 4/5), Lithuania (Qualifying Group 7: 4/6), Liechtenstein (Qualifying Group 4: 6/6)
If Spain don’t win every match I’ll work in a poultry factory in Cambodia for a year. If their form slouches they might concede a goal on the way. The others might as well refuse to play them in the hope they get rusty without practice.
In Group 9 for the World Cup, which featured a Dutch side that didn’t lose and four other teams, Norway lost out on a playoff spot with the worst second place record, 10 points from 8 games. With 14 final places up for grabs the best goes straight up rather than the worst straight down, so about that number will do for one of the three contenders. (The Purple Parrots of Liechtenstein will miss out on the trip to Space Camp but receive a gift certificate to FAO Schwartz.) Both Scotland and the Czechs were disastrous in the World Cup qualifiers, Scotland’s 1-0 result in a March friendly equivalent to being Best Underperformer.
Now, I like Scotland. I was impressed despite their loss to the Dutch in the final group game. And then I watched them get walloped by Sweden. Mass rejections of a Scotland call-up left coach Craig Levein with little of a first team and they were run down as Zlatan Ibrahimovic made his return. Neither Scotland nor the Czechs have an Ibrahimovic, though Chelsea keeper Petr Cech is almost as good and the various journeyman keepers Scotland can call on (the latest Blackpool’s Matt Gilks via his father’s mother’s sister’s cousin’s aromatherapist’s girlfriend in Inverness) are not. Which might have had something to do with the 3-0. In a race for who sucks less, it’s the Czechs by a country mile.
I’m sorry – what’s that? Lithuania? Oh. Well. No.
Key matches: Any Scotland and Czech Republic.
The Other Liveblog… Group E – Denmark-Cameroon
19 June 2010
FULL TIME! – Three desperately needed points but Cameroon out of the World Cup. The Dutch have an exhibition against Cameroon, Paul Le Guen will join Raymond Domenech’s new book club and Denmark have a decisive match against Japan to determine who faces the winner of Italy’s group. (Wild guesses…) That was hair-raising, nail-biting stuff. Denmark will still need a win from Japan – a draw will see them go through on goal difference thanks to Japan’s one-goal loss to the Dutch. This group has the tournament’s first casualty but plenty of action left.
Thanks to Sean, Mike, Peter and Lars Eriksen from the Guardian. I’m out to write their fan reporty thing.
90+2min. – Cameroon are really pressing and there’s flashes of real beauty in their desperation.The Danes are not pressing much and are showing real vulnerability, but the defending is stout and manful. Morten Olsen looks positively manic.
90min. – “Kjaer doesn’t care where he puts it!” shouts the announcer. I LOL nervously, like a police suspect hearing a detective joke about juvie during interrogation. Denmark freekick interrupts the Cameroon volley against the Danish goal. Passing practice now for Demark.
88min. – Kjaer out for Japan game! He looked to have wasted a cross into the Cameroon half and then brought down the counter-attacker. What a blow.
86min. – Tomasson off for yet another Poulsen, Jakob. Sorensen booked for timewasting. Commentators joking about a profusion of Poulsens. Denmark have retreated to their half – they need to score!
83min. – Poulsen down after a collision with the attacking I-don’t-even-know-who after Bendtner passes a beautiful ball to the Cameroon keeper. A Cameroon player blocks Aboubakar’s shot and the corner ping-pongs before Sorensen saves.
82min. – People are going on about Cameroon like they’re some beautiful underdog story rather than the top-tip to take 2nd place in this group. It’s you and me, Denmark. Let’s see this one home.
80min. – Useless Webo comes off for Abouakar after that brilliant save. Now a Cameroonian corner. They’re at the gates – but Idrissou sends another one over the net. Denmark need to get another, and not just for me – they can’t be safe with this scoreline, not as hard as Cameroon presses.
78min. – Cameroon are almost through but it’s saved!!! There’s nobody there!
75min. – Mbia in the book for bring down Kahlenberg roughly. It leads to, uh, something, and then Idrissou’s back down the Danish right. I thought they’d play much more centered.
73min. – Cameroon are taking off the booked Bassong for Idrissou, right after Bendtner overplays a pass. I can’t look. I must look.
70min. – Tomasson had a great through-ball, passed off from Rommedahl, but he sends it right off the keeper. That was his chance to make an honest man of me.
69min. – Why are they letting Eto’o receive all these passes? If they don’t get somebody in there he’s going to throw one of those passes straight in the net… but not yet.
66min. – Makoun misses a half-sitter, but he was marked and under pressure. The Danish defense have really come together but Cameroon are going to give this everything. Gronkjaer off for Kahlenberg – Olsen is going to push this all the way home.
64min. Cameroon still very dangerous, and Webo is doing little to help at the front. The attack must continue for Denmark – when they sit back, they’re dead.
62min. Dennis Rommedahl wanders through an aimless defense and bangs it right past the keeper. Wonderful. I would have his babies if he asked me.
61min. YYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
59min. – Gronkjaer gets away with the ball but is too bloody clever by half and gets dispossessed. It heads back to the Danish side but the defending has been much better – though too needful.
56min. – The FIFA website is useless as it also thought Njitap/Geremi went off for Makoun. It was in fact Eyong. My apologies. Cheers to Sean for the catch.
55min. – Kjaer takes a knock on the head. He’s being walked off. Oh God.
53min. – Magnificent run by Simon Poulsen, but it’s knocked back for a corner, which comes to naught. This ball is getting worked harder than… you fill that one in.
50min. – The free kick goes into the wall but a follow-up by Kjaer is palmed lightly over. Officials miss the corner and award a goal kick. Bassong the booked Cameroonian.
49min. – A horrifying chance by Makoun is averted as he’s brought down by Jensen. It looked very borderline to me, but the ref gave nothing and no one appealed. On the clearance Bendtner was through but was taken down, earning a Cameroonian the first booking of the match. Ref has been quite anonymous, and pleasantly so.
47min. Jensen has come on for the relatively-anonymous Jorgensen. Njitap for Makoun. For once FIFA does me a solid. Geremi remains. A header is palmed over by Sorensen.
46min. Apparently Bendtner has not left the field but stayed running up and down the touchline throughout the interval. For Cameroon, Geremi is said to have come off, for N’Guemo? Not confirmed.
HALF-TIME. The general World Cup press pool know what really matters – the endless whining about the disallowed goal against Slovenia. Having apparently heard nothing about what happened to Ireland, the entire World Cup-watching sports commentariat are screeching for a replay, a reversal, a tarring and feathering, anything! Only Alexi Lallas remains, horrifyingly, a voice of reason.
The stars for Denmark are all attackers – Rommedahl has been a one-man guerrilla army and Bendtner has been on-point all game. Some contributions from Christian Poulsen but Tomasson still doesn’t look fit and the back four look like they were fed LSD shortly before the match. Fortunately Cameroon are with a few exceptions completely lost.
Sean writes, “This is fun. As much as we all admire good defending, there’s little better than World Cup match littered with schoolboy errors.” Fun for you – I need a damn Ambien after that.
45+1min. – Olsen will probably spend the entirety of the half watching the replay just to see how many chances they each really have. Cameroonian defense are looking a little better but still badly vulnerable.
44min. – “Who thought up these defensive strategies? Evel Kineval?” says the commentator. For once I agree completely. These were huge chances both teams just had, and I barely had time to process what the Hell happened before somebody else was through on net. Absolutely agonizing stuff.
42min. – Rommedahl is terrorizing the Cameroonian right, rushes forward and beats the universe on a long ball. Rommedahl turns in, gets a shot, saved, another from Tomasson, saved, and finally a long ball from Bendtner is turned off. Then Cameroon are there, and they’re through, and a save and then it goes off the post! And back! And forth! Four unbeatable opportunities in two minutes!
40min. – Suddenly Denmark have new life, though Cameroon have not dropped off the face of the Earth. They still know what’s at stake. Geremi tries to play in Webo but Sorensen grabs it without undue trouble.
38min. – If you came by twitter, I apologize for my momentary bad Danish spelling. I went phonetically and didn’t correct it quickly enough. But, we persevere. I think we usually say “real end-to-end stuff” at this point, so there we are…
33min.– HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM APPLES??!!! – Kjaer plays a long ball to Rommedahl, past a clustering band of Cameroonians. Rommedahl sends it laterally to Bendtner, who is right there. Fantastic.
32min. – “What the fuck was that?” says IRL Dane Peter. I literally cannot tell what he means, Denmark are so poor.
30min. – Jacobsen confuses an Exocet missile with an ICBM and using the latter lifts the ball into near-Earth orbit. It’s just shocking, but at least Denmark have the ball.
27min. – “Apparently a friend-of-a-friend’s Mum looks like Danish striker Jon-Dahl Tomasson,” says Sean Carroll. And this is a man who yesterday was in the presence of His Holiness the Dalai Lama. Who actually looks a bit like a bald, bespectacled Morten Olsen… but I suppose at their age almost everyone does.
26min. – All crossing in this World Cup is terrible, say the commentators. Crosses feature a ball. Therefore the ball is terrible. A philosophy degree from a B school gives me little logical purchase, but I think I sense a few holes here.
24min. – Mike writes, “This is a very different Danish side that what I saw on Monday. Lacking discipline and confidence on the ball.” But – little-by-little – building up in the Cameroonian half. That goal was good fortune but little more and Cameroon look a bit unconvincing otherwise. But then, so do the Danes…
Webo plays with the ball on the touchline and is so adroit he’s flagged out of bounds.
20min. – Emana tries to get away with it a second time, but no dice say the defenders, who converge on him. Rommedahl leads an attack and it’s played to Tomasson, who beats the offside but can’t quite get to it.
17min. – Cameroon are swarming the ball as it goes from Dane to Dane. This is leaving a great deal of space open for long passes if Denmark can exploit. Gronkjaer has a shot, which is deflected to a pointless corner.
15min. – The commentators are now practically crowing about how wonderful it will be for an African team to make it out of the first round. I think it’d be wonderful if they weren’t so horrible – that goal was thanks to the Danish defense. Make no mistake.
Somehow that feels no better, though.
11min. – Also, lost in a cacophony of my dry heaving at 10”, Lars Eriksen notes that he is still – but still literally – writing the book on the ’86 Danish team. We’ll call that my glitch for the day. Emana blasts one at the goal. It’s wide, just.
10min. – HELL. Samuel Eto’o benefits from a Christian Poulsen defending horror – how many of those are worth his quality? – and bangs it in from no range. This could be a horror.
7min. – “There’s a lot of Poulsens around in the Danish squad, you’ll have gathered.” Only as many as Songs in Cameroon. Rommedahl launches a powerful, probing shot from distance. Over. Not by so much.
3min. – Jorgensen already looks 138… or 12.
1min. – Cameroon already on the attack, but Kjaer is on hand for the deflection. Not wasting any time, then.
2:29pm – “Der er et yndigt land” is sweet and melodic. I do so like it. Though it’s a bit sleepy.
2:26pm – Duh-duh-duh-DUH CAM-ER-OON! I love an anthem with cymbals. Though it sounds a little bit like something played by an inept high school band who just got the music ten minutes ago.
2:22pm – Oh, by the way, the big people minute-by-minute’s here. I say keep them open side by side.
2:19pm – Alexi Lallas: “This is gonna be a game!” Top commentating. He makes me feel like Jonathan Wilson.
2:17pm – Though to be fair there have been worse ideas. Like Fabio Capello.
2:16pm – Network television (ABC) is showing this match in the United States, to the delight of the country’s vast Camero-Danish community.
IRL Dane Peter Stockmann sends this link to Ekstra Bladet which suggests treatment for Bendtner was attempted via a witch doctor. You heard me. Witchcraft.
2:11pm – Fresh from a shower for the first time since mumble mumble. In that time we’ve got the team sheets, but before posting those Lars Eriksen, who literally wrote the book on the 80s Danish Dynamite, posted to alert me that there is a slightly shorter version to which I haphazardly referred. As it happens it jogged my memory as being excellent, and I’ll probably devote the next thirty minutes to a swift reread. He also links to his effort of this morning which shows the current lot in more skeptical relief. Cheers.
The teams:
DEN – Sorensen; Poulsen S., Agger, Kjaer, Jacobsen; Rommedahl, Poulsen C., Jorgensen, Gronkjaer; Tomasson, Bendtner. Coach M. Olsen (DEN).
CMR – Hamidou; Assou-Ekotto, N’Koulou, Bassong, Mbia; Emana, Song A., Enoh, Geremi; Eto’o, Webo. Coach P. Le Guin (FRA).
Key takeaways:
– All the doubtful Danish starters are in. Tomasson especially will provide much needed firepower up front and Kjaer’s presence removes a big worry, as he is not only stout but useful pushing forward. No telling if all three will make it.
– Big push forward for Cameroon. Alex Song is back in central midfield, with Webo and Eto’o moved up to forward positions. This should be much more dangerous.
Afternoon, gents and potentially ladies. Halfway through the second round two dozen teams are staring into the abyss. Included among them are England, laboring under two dire draws and trailing Slovenia; Spain, shocked by Switzerland; Germany, stunned by Serbia (with help from a soft red and Lukas Podolski, Serbia’s top defender); France, whose coach is even now putting Nicholas Anelka on a plane home; and most of the African contingent, including the hosts. There was loud concern that this World Cup would be boring, defensive and predictable. Not anymore.
Denmark and Cameroon are both among that number, though the Danes have reason to feel better about their position. An expected loss to a Dutch team favored to take nine points out of the group nevertheless displayed a relatively strong defensive performance and some attacking threat out of the dedicated forward players. More than most the Danes are susceptible to injury and more than most they’ve suffered from it; Bendtner, Tomasson and Kjaer are still iffy and now substitute Beckmann are added to their number. Still, having your backs to the wall and the worst behind you can be encouraging and liberating and I’m hopeful for all three to play.
Cameroon are meanwhile laboring under a fractious regime with unending reports of upset with coach Paul Le Guen, who is about as popular as a French manager should be, and the growing little black clouds hanging above Samuel Eto’o. Team selection has been particularly contentious thus far. However Eto’o will be satisfied with Le Guen’s decision to play him in the center after positioning him on the wing effectively removed him from the match against Japan, and others (Alex Song?) are likely to return to the pitch today. The whole team are well aware that a loss ends their contention for a place in the final sixteen. They will be a deadlier team than Japan found.
(Incidentally, earlier today someone asked me if it bothered me to cheer against an African team at Africa’s World Cup. Considering how bad they all are, not a whit – though I still hold out secret, unspeakable hope for the hosts.)
Tactics are likely to be similar and built around a key playmaker. Denmark will defend vigorously and where possible get the ball to Bendtner, ideally up the wings. Cameroon will try to get it forward to Eto’o through a string of central midfielders. Bendtner’s a rather better conductor if less individually talented than Eto’o, and Cameroon’s defense is less stalwart. Denmark are under real pressure to get goals early lest Bendtner give out. I think they’re up for it. I’ll say Denmark 3-1. (Jinx/knock on wood/fingers crossed?)
As last time Sean Carroll and Mike de Vries will have their tweets shamelessly stolen to provide inter-group reaction, as well as my friend Peter for the thoughts of an actual Dane. You can also have yourself reflected in this little dog and pony show via my slice of the Twatcracy as well as over e-mail at wahlberg(dot)peter(at)gmail.
Especially if you’re a Cameroon fan. I don’t have one of you yet and could use the counterpoint as I’m not exactly neutral.
A note from the world of the unseen: According to yesterday’s World Cup Daily, Rob Smyth of the Guardian has apparently written about how this Danish team is the finest since their 1986 side – and possibly better. I’ve been unable to find anything but a bunch of smaller write-ups on the ’86 squad but if and when it surfaces I’ll put it up (and let me know if find it). So far, I’m not sure – they seem to be uncomfortably perched in a transitional phase between old and young players and a strong defense balanced by a really menaching strikeforce. One jittery first game – amongst both teams – isn’t enough for me to judge.
Teams: To come.
He is the ref: J. Larrionda. The last Match he referred(? Why not) was Portugal-Ivory Coast in Group G, which had no score but three yellow cards. He’s been a ref at the top level for a long time but is controversial – at least in the USA. He’s certainly not shy about tossing around yellows and reds, so he may not tolerate a physical game. Denmark are a very physical team but their discipline is better than Cameroon’s, so we’ll see.
2-0. That’s the result of Morten Olsen’s big push for a draw against the Dutch. Between Elia’s legs, Dirk Kuyt’s right foot and Daniel Agger’s back, Denmark was thoroughly dominated by a Dutch team that showed flashes – just – of brilliant play.
Zonal Marking has a great summary of what went down, and it reports what you might expect: for a 2-0 win there wasn’t much in it as the Dutch struggled to bring down tightly-managed Danish resistance. The Dutch were favored and they got their win, and you might – as they do – take good note of the fact that the Danes avoided the mauling that was suffered by a poor Australia or a far better South Korea against similarly talented teams. But you can’t help thinking that they were capable of more – that if the Swiss can manage a very shaky team to a shock victory over the tournament’s favorites, Denmark could have taken one over an uncertain and only vaguely-favored Great Team.
Morten Olsen’s little fake-out routine with Bendtner was probably a mistake – at least it was a waste of time. I suppose there’s a chance that when he gave all those interviews he really didn’t think Bendtner would play. There’s also a chance that tomorrow I’ll become CEO of Merrill Lynch or the Sun will crash into Mercury. The fact is he played a little mind game with the Dutch that ultimately caused them no great consternation and got out of it was sixty-five minutes of mature but ultimately ineffective play from his star striker.
Ruse or no, he had little choice: with only three strikers in a squad that often plays two and veteran Jon Dahl Tomasson down with injury, it was either Bendtner or Soren Larsen, the journeyman striker who’s played little for the national team since his sensational introduction in 2005. You almost get the sense that he was included only because two strikers was too few even for Olsen; and when Bendtner went off he was replaced by Mikkel Beckmann, an attacking midfielder who seemed a poor fit and left little impression.
Eventually all three substitutions went to players up front – before Bendtner, the young Thomas Enevoldsen went off for the venerable Jesper Gronkjaer and Thomas Kahlenberg went off for Christian Eriksen. None had the effect of the Dutch substitution of van der Vaart for Elia, who terrorized the Danish right and turned Jacobsen, Rommedahl and the reinforcing Eriksen inside out. Worse, his runs pinned back Simon Kjaer and Daniel Agger, both of whose support were an important component in the early threat by the debilitated Danish strikeforce.
The lack of striking options, and the over-reliance on tried-and-true players like Jorgensen, Christian Poulsen and Rommedahl are problems with no solution; the squad is there, like it or lump it. But the good news is that Denmark’s defense did prove a good deal of mettle and for the first thirty minute the attack was as good or better than a Dutch team with far more options. Now Denmark has got its most difficult match out of the way and low expectations mean no psychological shock like that suffered by France, England or Italy. Poulsen/Agger’s own goal was unfortunate but a bizarre lacuna to otherwise excellent play – and perhaps only a little worrying in view of the fact that the only goal surrendered by Italy in the 2006 group stage was their own. The next match is against a Cameroon side which can’t work with Samuel Eto’o and Japan are not likely to get any better result against the Dutch. A final match against Japan suits a Danish team that tends to thrive with their backs to the wall. The dynamite burns slowly, but it burns all the same.
The Other Liveblog… Group E: Netherlands-Denmark
14 June 2010
21 min. – Brilliant run by van der Viart ends in frustration some twenty yards out. He keeps possession but shoots well wide.
19 min. – The Dutch win a corner which comes to naught. No Rommedahl, but injuries seem today to favor Denmark, which was highly unexpected. “The danish players dont gain control over the ball at all. They just hit the ball randomly away from the Dutch,” Danish Peter complains. How very English of them. At least they’re not serving it up shined and on a doiley.
14 min. – Denmark are locked up tight but this far aren’t doing much but repelling slightly shiftless attacks. The vuvuzelas are eternally peppy, though. I can’t believe they want to ban them. I think they’ve got a delicious existentialist quality.
12 min. – Sean reports that Japan favors the Dutch to take three points today. Surely this outcome is more likely than desirable. Peter in Denmark: “At least they haven’t scored.” Typical Danes.
8 min. – Good also to see Enevoldsen playing for Denmark; he made a bit of a splash in the qualifier against Senegal. First Van der Wiel makes a run and Kuyt follows up; both come to naught.
6 min. – Lousy DC bus system. I rush into work just in time to see a) a crunching tackle and missed Dutch free kick and b) Bendtner’s alive! He’s alive!
It’s 7:00 and I’m alone in a windowless room, which means it’s time for my very own extraordinary rendition of the tried and true minute-by-minute. More speculative than a Greek government bond, it is my hope that this effort entertains, informs and failing that avoids the sort of humiliation normally reserved for a first-choice England goaltender. (No points for the observation that it’s far, far too late.)
Group E’s juggernauts the Netherlands meet my own adopted Denmark in a match-up whose conditions bear some similarity to this year’s Arsenal-Barcelona tie in the Champions League. Both teams were automatic group qualifiers; both feature strong defenses and attacking players of individual brilliance; both share not merely a style but a shared experience of play, with many players on both sides hailing from the Dutch Eredivisie; and one is the obvious favorite, overflowing with talent, while the other looks in desperate need of their own hospital emergency room. The Dutch may be short the miraculous if folically-challenged Arjen Robben, but they have a side packed with players of unquestioned international quality like Wesley Sneijder, Robin van Persie and the retiring Giovanni van Bronckhorst. By contrast Denmark feature a combination of old international hands and up-and-coming youngsters like defender Simon Kjaer and Arsenal’s Nicklas Bendtner, both of whom have been struck by the illness and injury plague that has also raised doubts over keeper Thomas Sorensen, striker Jon Dahl Tomasson, midfielder Daniel Jensen and even the coach, Morten Olsen. Olsen already ruled out Bendtner, though there are hints in the Danish press it may be a strategem, especially when he declares that he’d be perfectly satisfied with a draw. Given how badly outclassed Denmark is supposed to be, you don’t blame him.
But the teams’ histories are more complicated. The Dutch, of course, stand with Hungary and Spain as one of the best national teams never to win the World Cup. They created the total football that revolutionized the game but twice in a row fell just short of the prize, having to content themselves with a European Championship in 1988. They looked to repeat but the Danes, winners of the classic World Cup Group of Death six years before and admitted to the 92 Championship days before thanks to the expulsion of the collapsing Yugoslavia, saw them off in a thrilling semifinal penalty shootout on their way to a shock victory. Since then the Danes have been relatively unfancied and unimpressive, only reaching the World Cup Finals twice between 1986 and 2010, while the Dutch make regular appearances but never with the payoff they seek. As a result the teams rarely meet: the last time was 2008. Once again the Danes are the darkest of dark horses; once again the Dutch eye hungrily the prize that might very well, this year, be theirs.
I’ll be monitoring the match and updating regularly, so be sure to refresh the page. I’ll also be lucky to have the contributions of two of my fellow Group E fans from the Guardian’s band of international irregulars. Mike de Vries is a self-described “pessimistic Oranje supporter,” which did not stop him from effortlessly and rightly schooling me for my unintentional dismissiveness of a “youthful” Dutch side. (Average age: 27.7 – same as Denmark.) His blog is a great source of comment on these potential World Cup winners. Sean Carroll is a Tokyo-based writer and Japan aficionado who does, like, actual journalism, which I think will contrast nicely with my aimless blundering. Very much worth a look is his interview with Japan-based North Korea international Jong Tae-Se, which has kicked up quite a stir. Both gents have been good enough to lend their pith, mirth and insight on the match. I also hope to call upon my friend Peter Stockmann, who doesn’t have a website but is an actual Dane and can read Danish papers. Literacy is a huge advantage these days. The more you know.
(Starting off late here but feel free to e-mail your thoughts – wahlberg(dot)peter(at)gmail(dot).com. Sorry to be irritating, but I fear the spammers.
My revised and equally-unfounded World Cup predictions! Groups C, D, and the only one that matters
9 June 2010
To assume makes an ass of you and me. So let’s get on with it. Part 1 here.
Group C – In-ger-lund!
England, United States, Algeria and Slovenia; last prediction 1st England 2nd Slovenia
Listening to today’s Football Weekly – the super-duper special World Cup preview – I can’t help but wonder what’s wrong with the English. Is the malaise in football’s motherland so great that America – America! – can be turned into some great vicious enemy waiting to maul hapless, helpless Albion? What strange days we live in.
Yes, England looks a bit, uh, French lately. Indifferent against Mexico and fortunate to have two of Japan’s three goals go their way, you would rightly sniff a bit at the prospects of this being England’s Year. But only a bit: England were deadly in the qualifiers. You might smell a whiff of diffidence from their surrender to the Ukraine, but then a little charity is perhaps in order, especially since the squad was so much more unsettled this year than last. (A contagion starting with the Russian roulette going on in goal and abating only at the shiny golden pate of Wayne Rooney.)
But then. That Japan match was just – ugh. Ugh! God. I feel the bad kind of dirty just thinking about it. England’s best chance was a penalty. Which Frank Lampard missed.
Deep breaths. Deep breaths. We recall that they’re facing the same USA side that took a single point in 2006 and blew the 2007 Copa America. Their qualification run was basically identical this time around and the Confederations Cup, while an inspiring moment for a team of lesser lights, mattered rather less to Spain and Brazil, who seemed as though they simply couldn’t be bothered to lose. 3-1 against Australia is no mean feat – but big losses to the indifferent Czechs and the Dutch (minus Van Persie) are highly unencouraging.
See?
But that’s not how I really know the USA is in trouble. You know how? All this big tough bluster about giving England a rough time and psyching out Wayne Rooney when they can’t even muster the best widow’s peak. Like Jay DeMerit is Cristiano Ronaldo and Rooney’s just going to oblige them an hysterical red card or gift some horrible passing error in a fit of pique. I think they’ve been basing their team strategy on the Nike commercial.
Told you so.
Of course Algeria are a horror show and will not foul themselves to a single point. (Though I’ll tip them for worst group stage disciplinary record – take that Uruguay!) Slovenia, however, still tug at my soul. Their friendly results are encouraging but sparse – only three since last September, two wins and a loss (to England). However in terms of finding it where it counts Slovenia are up there, tossing out the top three seeded teams in their qualifying group and an excellent Russian side in the playoffs. Like I said before: it’s the fussballgeist.
Admittedly their group was easy-ish. But besides Mexico, was the USA’s any more challenge?
Hmm. Perhaps cynicism towards your home nation is an Anglophone thing.
England wins all three. Their first match will result in less a defeat than a rout of the United States. Slovenia comes through, but on only four or five points.
Group D – Sitzkrieg
Germany, Australia, Ghana and Serbia; last prediction 1st Germany 2nd Australia
The months have not been terribly kind to Germany. They’ve lost Michael Ballack to a needless meaningless injury (Arsene Wenger will hopefully feel some sick pleasure that the pendulum swings both ways) and ex-coach Franz Beckenbauer is using it as an excuse to say they won’t contend. Balls. (Balls-ack? Can I get a har har?) Ballack was good, a lynchpin, but Germany are not a team so inspired by a single player. His loss doesn’t rule them out the way Rooney’s would England or Ronaldo’s Portugal. It’s the difference between an A and A- team.
But maybe they don’t sweep the group. All of the teams they face are notionally quite strong; Serbia and Australia actually so. Ghana has a lot to offer in FIFA World Cup but they were bad at the Africa Cup of Nations, atrocious against the Netherlands and will see none of Michael Essien, who was a best a toy flashlight in the midst of a black hole.
Australia impressed in 2006, qualified effortlessly in the more difficult Asian Confederation and their last several friendlies have been positive. (Especially after forcing a 0-0 draw with the Dutch.) Star midfielder Tim Cahill is an injury doubt but you’d argue this still leaves them better off than others. (Germany, Ghana…) I noticed Serbia got some buzz as a dark horse team; this is right, if for no other reason than that they’re on par with Australia (and the USA) but get nothing like the coverage. Reservations about their shaky form lately weren’t helped by a slightly hysterical 4-3 result against Cameroon.
Though neither were they after Australia’s 3-1 loss to the USA…
Germany will top the group, but may give up a draw. Australia with Cahill is 54-46 to come second; without 52-48. See what I did there? I used numbers to seem sciency.
Group E – Stale Danish and doubled-over Dutch
The Netherlands, Cameroon, Denmark, Japan; last prediction 1st Netherlands 2nd Denmark
I have to admit the subtitle’s a bit forced. After I spent a solid 15 minutes on it. Yeah.
The Dutch have continued a strong run of form after a perfect qualifying run, but… I don’t know. I watched them against Ghana and it was probably the most jittery big victory I’ve seen. They seemed tentative and slightly distracted and only very late did they expose the soft underbelly of Ghana’s misery and crap goaltending. For a great team, they weren’t very great – and they’ll be down the truly excellent Arjen Robben in the opener against Denmark. If they’re lucky.
The Danes, however, have fared far worse. Their key men both up front and in back, Nicklas Bendtner and Simon Kjaer, are on the knife-edge for desperately-needed inclusion against the Dutch. Then just today the coach/namesake of Olsen’s Gang took to his bed with a fever. In South African winter. You can’t make this shit up, can you? Bendtner and Kjaer have at least returned to full training, but with all three fit Denmark dropped three of the last four friendlies. (Taking it easy to avoid injuries?) Bendtner in particular is a blessing, since Olsen brought only three strikers to the tournament, preferring to keep his options open in a variety of supporting roles.
Cameroon are fully fit and somehow even more pathetic. Samuel Eto’o threatened to quit because Roger Milla wouldn’t be his friend (dude, cold) and the rest of the team aren’t much to write home about. Even Japan has rather more depth. Cameroon haven’t won a match since the group stages of the Africa Cup of Nations and I’m not sure their 0-0 draw against Georgia qualifies as a result. Or their 1-1 against Italy, come to that.
As for Japan – I can’t even. Read this instead. Too bad they’ll go as their fan contributor knows his stuff and is far less crap than I.
The absence of Robben probably won’t noticeably hinder the Dutch this early. They’ll come first. The Danes, luckier than good of late, to slide in second. If Cameroon are lucky they’ll make a good third.
UEFA World Cupdate, 10 October
11 October 2009
Rather a dull day, actually. What looked set to happen did with few diversions.
In other qualifier news, Bahrain tied New Zealand at home. Any draw at the second match will favor the Bahrainis as long as it isn’t scoreless. New Zealand should be worried about this. (Though I suppose New Zealand should be more worried about not being good.)
WON
Denmark 1-0 Sweden (Group 1)
Portugal 3-0 Hungary (1)
Switzerland 3-0 Luxembourg (2)
Israel 3-1 Moldova (2)
Greece 5-2 Latvia (2)
Czech Republic 2-0 Poland (3)
Slovenia 2-0 Slovakia (3)
Finland 2-1 Wales (4)
Germany 1-0 Russia (4)
Azerbaijan 4-1 Liechtenstein (4)
Spain 2-1 Armenia (5)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 Estonia (5)
Belgium 2-0 Turkey (5)
Belarus 4-0 Kazakhstan (6)
Ukraine 1-0 England (6)
Austria 1-0 Lithuania (7)
Serbia 5-0 Romania (7)
France 5-0 Faroe Islands (7)
Cyprus 4-1 Bulgaria (8 – and the ouch of the day)
Montenegro 2-1 Georgia (8)
DREW
Irish Republic 2-2 Italy
QUALIFIED
Denmark
Germany
Serbia
Italy
GUARANTEED PLAYOFF BERTHS
Russia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
France
Republic of Ireland
WHO’S UP, WHO’S DOWN
Portugal 3rd to 2nd; Sweden falls (1)
Israel 4th to 3rd; Latvia falls (2)
Czech Republic 4th to 3rd; Northern Ireland falls (3)
Azerbaijan 6th to 5th; Liechtenstein falls (4)
Ukraine 3rd to 2nd; Croatia falls (6)
Sean St Ledger, the bipolar anima of the Irish team
Of course the sole draw was also one of the most decisive matches. Ireland were on fine form and Italy, though not up to their 2006 standard, were exciting nonetheless. But Italy was also standoffish, so in that sense the match was a showcase for the best and worst of the Irish team: the Italians seemed to be merely “dropping by”. The best was the late header by Sean St Ledger – his first for Ireland – off a free kick by Stephen Hunt; the worst was when, in the ninetieth minute, an Italian push failed to be picked up by a surely-shellshocked St Ledger and effortlessly sent a Gilardino strike past the hapless Shay Given to tie it. (Credit where due: itself a beautiful goal.) Perhaps the problem is that Ireland doesn’t yet know how to win? It has been awhile.
The game was probably irrelevant – both Ireland and Italy will win their final match which would have left Italy ahead anyway and Ireland got clear of 3rd place Bulgaria regardless – but I must admit it struck some slice of Celtic pride buried deep inside me to see the win slip away. Hopefully Ireland, as well as they may have done, will be a bit more put together for the playoff rounds.
WHAT THE FUCK?! MOMENT
I could subtitle this section “OPPROBRIUM.” It goes out to the entire English team – working together. They decided to be asleep at the wheel against Ukraine, which handed that side a desperately needed win whichwill see them through to the playoffs at the expense of Croatia. No disrespect to Ukraine, but they should not have won if England played at full speed (just as they didn’t before and neither did Croatia). They didn’t.
Cheering for England - fresco in oils
Perhaps this was further revenge for the Croats’ sending off of England in 2008; and if it is, it’s shameful. But I don’t think so. I think England did what they always do – got just enough to do the job and decided to coast the rest of the way through. The Spanish haven’t done this. The Dutch didn’t. Neither did the Germans. But that’s the difference, isn’t it? They play every single game while the little princesses on the England squad don’t want to take the risks required to win lest they get hurt. Because of their diffidence a weaker team will get through. The Greeks killed Socrates for less.
Perhaps a coach from another football can sum it up better.
WINNERS
Don't cry, poppet, you can still lose to Russia
Portugal – Only towards the end, faced with the abyss, did they find it. Their 3-0 trouncing of Hungary was exactly what they needed to get ahead. Now only a sure thing against Malta stands between them and a certain playoff berth – though Denmark must be given the honorable mention for beating Sweden, which benefits Portugal at least as much as it does them.
Slovenia – They beat the Slovaks. They beat them handily. This was quite unexpected. When the Slovenes first made my giney tingle shortly before the 12 August mini-qualifiers they were fifth place in the group and were checkered at best, and it was mostly dumb instinct and mathematics that suggested I favor them. But the thought that they could crawl up 5 places to the very top was unheard of. It is now a possibility; see below.
Ukraine – They beat England. I wrote in August that this would be a “shock of epic proportions.” And how. It was mostly ignored in the press, partly because the England-Ukraine game was streamed online only via a shoddy connection in a first for useless technology and partly because England already made it. But that shouldn’t take away from Ukraine’s accomplishment despite my above tirade. They played well and bought themselves a playoff birth.
Cyprus – I know it doesn’t matter, but they badly battered Bulgaria (alliterative win), which is nominally a far superior team. I’m a little sorry they weren’t paired in a group with Turkey, considering what they appear to be capable of. But that’s probably my sick way of seeking vengeance for Turkey’s own bust-out.
LOSERS
Sweden – Don’t confuse yourselves, my erstwhile Scandinavian countrymen: you’re done. (And it didn’t stop me from quietly flailing for Denmark – personal loyalty before genetic, I suppose, though thank God my grandfather is dead.) Even if Sweden won Denmark would have got the better of a tie, which would have shut the door to Portugal for good. Perhaps I should have pulled for the Swedes after all. But this seems unsporting.
Either way Sweden’s play was not worthy of them. The Danes flagged at the end and Sweden’s attempt at exploitation were two goals marred by offsides. Even then they could have meekly held the line for the last ten minutes and taken their chances with Albania and a tie with Portugal on points. They did not. Their World Cup ends here for it. The stain at Parken is lifted.
Norway – The vanquishers of Scotland will almost certainly have nothing to show for it. Barring some extreme fluke they will be the weakest of the 2nd place finishers and so excluded from the second round. Unfair perhaps, but they were in a group with one very strong team and three relatively weak ones. I’ve heard (though I can find no evidence) some griping about how this went down in the first round; I think should this occur again (which the addition of a Kosovar team might prevent) they ought to exclude from the final group one of the Pot A “best” teams and instead include two “E” teams. None of the second place runners had a chance against a Dutch side like that. They just sucked all the air out of the room and lacked the politeness to throw one at the last minute. Eh, England? Eh?
There's always 201...mumble
Everybody else – For fully half the teams the qualifiers are done, though almost all still play on Wednesday. When you consider teams that aren’t technically “out” but have no real shot that number shoots up to include almost everybody besides those whose berths are already secure. End of the line. Have your tickets ready.
WHAT WILL MATTER WEDNESDAY
Despite the large number of games to be played on the 14th, almost none will be of any significance. Here are the few which will:
Group 2: It is not impossible that Greece tie or even lose to Luxembourg. They’ve won only a single game – against group leader Switzerland, and drawn two to last-place Moldova. It is also not impossible that Israel defeat leaders Switzerland. If they did they’d sneak past the Greeks by either a point or on the tiebreaker. I am most certainly not holding my breath, but keep your eye peeled on them – especially Greece-Luxembourg. If Greece struggles, get your slide rule.
Group 3: Fascinating to the last. Slovakia is holding Slovenia by a mere two points with one game left in a group where everyone has fucked someone else over at least once. The Czechs are a close third but are ultimately irrelevant – they needed Slovakia to win today.
Slovenia are certain to win their final match against San Marino; the crucial game (indeed the only game) will be Slovakia’s. Despite the numbers their loss today has put Slovakia on the back foot; assuming Slovenia’s already won (and they have) Slovakia will have to beat Poland. A draw will drop them to second; right now they’re even on goal difference but the Slovenes will pound San Marino to run up the numbers. Though Slovakia’s final match is away, the location in Poland is relatively close to Slovakia, lending a less hostile atmosphere than they could otherwise expect, and their away record is 3-1. But Poland are still a threat.
Whichever team comes in second will nevertheless be a distinct underdog going into the playoffs, especially with this newfound extensively ridiculous seeding system – out of spite I’ll call it the French system – so first place is quite the plum. I stand by my original rankings; Slovakia have one last victory in them. Either way we will see either a fourth- or fifth-seeded team gain an automatic qualification. That’s something special.
ALMOST EVERYPLACE ELSE
As an added bonus! (Except Africa. Probably racist but I haven’t even begun to pay attention to it. I blame my parents. Actually, fuck it. On no basis at all, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire and South Africa will be joined by… uh… Algeria, Nigeria and Cameroon. Special attention to Algeria-Egypt (14 November) and Nigeria-Mozambique.
In South America you want to watch Argentina-Uruguay and, perhaps far below that, refresh the page with Chile-Ecuador. This(ese) will be the decisive game(s) there. (I like Uruguay for a narrow win and the final automatic spot; Argentina will settle for the playoff.)
In North America Costa Rica will play the US and a win there will get them the third spot. If they don’t get it Honduras can clinch with a win over El Salvador; I think there’s even odds on a tie between the two favoring Costa Rica, with Honduras playing off (and falling to) Argentina in November. That’s six months for Argentina to sack Maradona and get a real coach. It really is too bad. Hand of God; head of Dog.
—
After Wednesday’s (very truncated) recap I’ll mention the playoffs, though we won’t know much about those until the seeding (yes, they’re seeding, the bastards) on the 19th.
UEFA World Cup recap, 9 September
9 September 2009
Same system as before. Honorable non-European mention goes to the Bahrain-Saudi Arabia playoff in Riyadh, where two goals in stoppage time – including a remarkable Bahraini equalizer at 90+4! – saw the former go through on the away goals rule to face New Zealand in a two-game playoff.
Not many rank changes today, but lots of new math.
WON
Sweden 1-0 Malta (Grp 1)
Portugal 1-0 Hungary (1)
Israel 7-0 Luxembourg (2 – and the ouch of the day)
Czech Republic 7-0 San Marino (3)
Slovakia 2-0 Northern Ireland (3)
Slovenia 3-0 Poland (3)
Germany 4-0 Azerbaijan (4)
Russia 3-1 Wales (4)
Armenia 2-1 Belgium (5)
Spain 3-0 Estonia (5)
Kazakhstan 3-1 Andorra (6)
England 5-1 Croatia (6)
Faroe Islands 2-1 Lithuania (7)
Italy 2-0 Bulgaria (8)
Netherlands 1-0 Scotland (9)
Norway 2-1 Macedonia (9)
DREW
Denmark 1-1 Albania (1)
Latvia 2-2 Switzerland (2)
Moldova 1-1 Greece (2)
Liechtenstein 1-1 Finland (4)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1-1 Turkey (5)
Belarus 0-0 Ukraine (6)
Romania 1-1 Austria (7)
France 1-1 Serbia (7)
Montenegro 1-1 Cyprus (9)
QUALIFIED (in addition to Netherlands, which was already placed
England
Spain
WHO’S UP, WHO’S DOWN
Hungary 2nd to 4th; Sweden and Portugal up (Grp 1)
Slovenia 4th to 2nd and; Northern Ireland falls (2)
Poland 3rd to 5th; Czech Republic up (2)
Norway 3rd to 2nd; Scotland falls – final (9)
OH SHIT!
Les Bleus ache for the recognition their international stature warrants, and for the second day in a row they get it. After earning a tie against Romania via an own goal (perhaps against is the wrong word?), France topped it yet again with the exceedingly rare feat of having their starting goaltender, Hugo Lloris, sent off for bringing down Serbia’s Nenad Milijaš in the box. The latter converted the resulting penalty shot into Serbia’s lone goal. I think maybe France was jealous of Denmark’s “What the fuck?!” moment last week. This week France earns both.
Credit where it’s due, at least: French substitute Steve Mandanda coped admirably.
PULP FICTION MOMENT
And to think the Serbs will qualify outright
“And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers. And you will know my name is The Lord when I lay my vengeance upon you.” Ezekiel 25:17/Samuel L.
The British press apparently decided that this match was to be the answer to Croatia’s defeat of England in 2008 that saw them out of the European Cup qualifiers. England apparently saw it that way too, despite a 4-1 victory at their last meeting. England proceeded to thrash the Croatian side – no slouches they – 5 to 1. Even Croatia’s sole reply was promptly answered by Wayne Rooney. That hadda hurt.
WINNERS
Slovakia and Slovenia – My two group 3 picks played exactly as I’d expected, if not hoped. (I’m obligated, and not unhappily, towards the faltering Northern Irish side.) Slovakia took the Orangemen 2-0, and Slovenia put in an impressive 3-0 against Poland.
Slovenia is now the only team that can overtake Slovakia, who are guaranteed at least a playoff spot. This would require two Slovenian wins – including against the Slovaks – and for the Slovaks to lose against Poland. I don’t think it likely; but Slovenia should make it into the second round and if they stay on form I think they’ll be surprise contenders.
Serbia – France’s foibles aside, Serbia performed admirably today. That performance guarantees that they’ll not merely qualify but, barring a disaster, will finish at the top of the group. This has to be attributed to their own skill before anything else.
Faroe Islands – I have to give the plucky Faroese props for throwing down the Lithuanians. Their inability to win seems not to have dimmed their enthusiasm. They get a tip of the hat.
Honorable mention to Scotland. They played their best game of the tournament tonight. Alas that they had not done against Norway, which turned out to be the group’s decisive game. Ironically Norway is as likely as not to be cut from the top 8 to go forward, so their effort will be for naught.
LOSERS
This is NOT the entire French side
France – Look. Thierry Henry is not a team. He can’t score all your goals and he can’t do all your running. Not even with little Franck Ribéry running around helping him.
Bottom line, France got lucky in having a weak group. That is the only reason their dreams won’t end in October.
Sweden – What was their performance against the Maltese? It should not have taken them 80 minutes for a single goal against this side. It doesn’t bode well if they hope to hold their weak second place, much less catch up to the Danes.
Greece – A tie against Moldova? Give me strength. Latvia’s draw against Switzerland was relatively more important and now they’re nipping at Pheidippides‘ heels. Indeed I think I was too quick to disregard them, or at least too ready to give Greece credit. They’re now even money for second place.
Ukraine – Croatia’s drubbing should have been solid gold for them, since it would vault Ukraine ahead in any tie-breaking situation. But they drew. To Belarus. The cultural and historical impact alone makes me wince.
Turkey – They didn’t need a tie against Bosnia-Herzegovina. They needed the win. They didn’t get it. Now only an improbable Bosnia loss to Estonia will see them in with a chance. When your survival is completely contingent upon another team’s performance, something’s gone badly awry. End of the line.
Dishonorable mention to Denmark, who tied Albania, which can only be rated a failure. They can afford it, and everybody else in the group appears to have done the same, but now is not the time to let up. Sweden, Hungary and Portugal are all still contenders.
It’s quiet until October. We’ll see what we see.
UEFA World Cup recap, 5 September
5 September 2009
I should recap the other leagues too, especially the increasingly-fucked-up CONCACAF and CONMEBOL, but I haven’t put enough attention and research into it. Plus the games are still going today, whereas Europe has finished up until Wednesday next.
(Though Colombia’s crucial win over Ecuador looks to have been a barnburner.)
WON
Sweden 2-1 Hungary (Grp 1)
Latvia 1-0 Israel (2)
Switzerland 2-0 Greece (2)
Finland 2-1 Azerbaijan (4)
Russia 3-0 Liechtenstein (4)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 Armenia (5)
Turkey 4-2 Estonia (5)
Spain 5-0 Belgium (5)
Ukraine 5-0 Andorra (6)
Croatia 1-0 Belarus (6)
Austria 3-1 Faroe Islands (7)
Bulgaria 4-1 Montenegro (8)
Italy 2-0 Georgia (8)
Irish Republic 2-1 Cyprus (8)
Scotland 2-0 Macedonia (9)
DREW
Denmark 1-1 Portugal (1)
Moldova 0-0 Luxembourg (2)
Poland 1-1 Northern Ireland (3)
Slovakia 2-2 Czech Republic (3)
France 1-1 Romania (7)
Norway 1-1 Iceland (9)
RANK CHANGES
Sweden 4th to 3rd; Portugal falls (1)
Switzerland 2nd to 1st; Greece falls (2)
Poland 4th to 3rd; Slovenia falls (3)
Austria 4th to 3rd; Lithuania falls (7)
Macedonia 2nd to 4th; Scotland and Norway move to 2nd and 3rd (9)
OH SHIT! MOMENT
Honorable mention goes to Georgia, who were on such good terms with their asleep-at-the-wheel Italian opponents that they gave them not one but two own goals to ensure their run at the Finals would not be disturbed.
But in the end there’s not much contest. Julian Escudé, a hapless French center back, attempted a move (a slide tackle?) that went badly, badly awry. In the process he blew the game for France and perhaps any chance at automatic qualification for his side.
WHAT THE FUCK?! MOMENT
Stephan Andersen, Denmark’s goaltender, put in a performance that can only be described as inspired. He repeatedly faced down a Portuguese side that was at first uncoordinated but became more aggressive and desperate as the game went on. When a Portuguese corner was finally knocked in off the tip of a scalp late in the game, however, Andersen promptly fell backwards so theatrically that initially you thought he’d really been injured. The match official wasn’t duped and booked Andersen, still lying in his own net, for demonstration.
WINNERS
... but they'll never take OUR FREEDOM!
Scotland – Just when it couldn’t get any worse, the gods knelt down and kissed the Scots on the forehead. Not only did they manage a respectable 2-0 win over Macedonia to regain second place but Norway tied Iceland. It wasn’t the best outcome the Scots could hope for, but it was close. If the faltering Macedons can hold Norway to a tie, or defeat them outright, the Scots may yet have a chance – especially if they can see off the heretofore impenetrable Dutch.
They’re not out of the woods yet, but Scotland’s team bears more than passing resemblance to their Prime Minister: Write them off if you like, but they couldn’t care less. In the process they may, very pleasantly, make a fool of me.
Switzerland
Their convincing win against Greece vaults them back into first place in their group. They’ll stay there.
Slovenia
Never that I know of has a team that didn’t even play done so well. (Though I suppose they did play, a respectable 2-1 loss to England in a friendly.) Every other contender in their group drew their matches today, which makes Slovenia’s path to the top that much easier in that screwy fucked up group.
Ukraine
They ran up a 5-0 win over Andorra which they very desperately needed. Now they’re only one goal off from Croatia (factoring in that the latter has played more games) and they still have a fixture against the Andorran schills. Both play England yet; it will be crucial that neither lose badly.
LOSERS
Portugal
One useless man is called a disgrace...
Their course back to relevance was hard enough, even with the return of Ronaldo for what was supposed to be a win over group leaders Denmark (which I and the rest of the world gave them). But they didn’t have it. While Sweden’s win is a boon for them since it keeps the battle for 2nd place close, they would ideally like to be in the hunt for the top spot. They were. Now they’re gasping for breath, and embattled second-place Hungary (who they face in two of their last three) will not just roll over and die.
France
They’ve been asking for this with shoddy play and poor coordination. But giving up a game that, thanks to their previous missteps, was a must-win – and to an own goal at that – is really baffling. There was no reason they couldn’t win. There was no reason they shouldn’t win. And yet they did not. If they weren’t the runners-up in 2006 I would say they had absolutely no place being in contention. Far from first place, I’m beginning to wonder if they’re really secure for second.
Something still tells me Serbia’s luck will run out. But not yet.
Stay tuned for this Wednesday and Thursday. Big fixtures include Portugal at Hungary, Turkey at Bosnia, France at Serbia, and anything in Groups 3 or 9. (The latter will be decided that day.)
World Cupdate: UEFA Group 1
10 August 2009
We’re now less than a year from South Africa, and the final line-up of teams is beginning to take shape. For the crucial leagues (a grotesquely-expanded Europe and South America) qualifiers continue for the rest of the year. But most teams have finished just over half their games, so it’s simultaneously far enough away that some prediction is possible while being close enough for me to avoid embarassing myself (too badly).
So here goes for Europe. I’ll post a group or two a day as in the course of a long lazy Sunday I managed to pour 4000 words before getting to Group 9, which is too much even for me. Also the delay will allow the mini-round of qualifiers to take place this Wednesday 12 August, which will at least update the figures even if none of the games are very dramatic. (Scotland v Norway is the best of a dull bunch.)
The UEFA qualifiers are organized into eight groups of six teams each and a further group of five. They’re derived from taking one team each from six preset pots. These pots were organized based on FIFA rankings of all the national teams – so Pot A was the best, Pot B the next, etc. This was to ensure that there wasn’t a “Group of Death” which pitted strong national teams against each other while weaker teams qualified in less-competitive groups. You’d think that this functioned to distribute spots freely to the best teams while crippling the chances of weaker ones. You’d think wrong.
There are 13 spots to be distributed amongst the UEFA teams. The eight group winners will qualify automatically after ten games per group (eight for group nine – two per team). Of the nine group runners-up the top eight will go into a single pot and play four games to determine the final four qualifiers.
Teams are assigned points based on performance. 3 points for a win, 1 for a draw (to each) and nothing for a loss. So 13 points out of six games (which is what most teams have played) means 4 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Group 1: Great Danes and Little Iberians
Participants: Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, Hungary, Albania, Malta
If I did have to nominate a “group of death” this year, so far it would be this one. Denmark and Hungary have soared at the expense of Portugal and Sweden, which have both suffered under the weight of draw after draw. (Portugal failed even to secure a win in their first meet against Albania.) Meanwhile Denmark, probably channeling their 2007 disgrace, came through a shock last-minute win against Portugal and a solid performance against Sweden to sit atop the pool.
The top four teams have four games left to play. My instinct is that Denmark’s numbers vis-a-vis Portugal are slightly inflated, as Denmark already played both their games against Malta while the Portuguese have one to go. Fourth-place Sweden are the only other team with another game against Malta. We can assume both will win: a draw or loss to Malta by either would surely spell doom. However even if Portugal beats Denmark at their next meeting and assuming a win against Malta, they’ll still fall one-point behind the Danes.
Hungary’s position in second-place is deceptively weak. They’ve only played Sweden once – their sole loss – while they’ll face Portugal in two of their final four. Hungary’s four wins have come solely from Albania and Malta, the weakest sides. Saving the hardest games for last may be a morale boost, but Sweden and Portugal’s victories over Malta will put them only one point behind. Even with a draw, either can squeeze ahead by beating another team, and Sweden still has a match against relatively-easy Albania. Even a draw there would tie Sweden up with Hungary. There are just too many outs left for the others. Hungary will slip.
I doubt the Danes will, however. Their injury-time win against Portugal (where they were behind from the half until the 82nd minute, and then again from the 84th until injury time) is evocative of Turkey last year, which was constantly outplayed but never outspirited. While the Danes will be at home next time, the Portuguese will have returned to them Cristiano Ronaldo, absent at their last meeting a year ago. This should help, but then he didn’t do much against Albania in June. I think it’s likely that the Danes’ last win was something unusual and Portugal goes into the next meeting with better than even odds. I also don’t think it will matter. The resurgent Danish side is more than capable of taking any two of Albania, Hungary or Sweden, and two are all they’ll need. Against both Swedes and Portuguese they’ve proven themselves more than capable of performing with élan.
Predicting number two is not easier. Portugal should have the edge but they drew Sweden in both of their meetings, and given the numbers at work a draw is tantamount to a Swedish victory and evidence of a shaky Portuguese side. Sweden’s loss against Denmark at home doesn’t speak better of them though. It needs to run up the numbers against Malta in order to get the better of any tie and take down Denmark at Parken if they can. In no case can they accept another draw against Albania.
Prediction: Denmark to clear to South Africa. Portugal will rally, possibly on the strength of a victory against the Danes, to make second. Sweden has more than an outside chance, but the decision whether they go forward isn’t theirs.
Something fishy in the state of…
30 June 2009
Are we being geographically invaded? Scientists say no but our producers say yes!
The blog title can be changed at any time 