I should recap the other leagues too, especially the increasingly-fucked-up CONCACAF and CONMEBOL, but I haven’t put enough attention and research into it. Plus the games are still going today, whereas Europe has finished up until Wednesday next.

(Though Colombia’s crucial win over Ecuador looks to have been a barnburner.)

WON

Sweden 2-1 Hungary (Grp 1)

Latvia 1-0 Israel (2)

Switzerland 2-0 Greece (2)

Finland 2-1 Azerbaijan (4)

Russia 3-0 Liechtenstein (4)

Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 Armenia (5)

Turkey 4-2 Estonia (5)

Spain 5-0 Belgium (5)

Ukraine 5-0 Andorra (6)

Croatia 1-0 Belarus (6)

Austria 3-1 Faroe Islands (7)

Bulgaria 4-1 Montenegro (8)

Italy 2-0 Georgia (8)

Irish Republic 2-1 Cyprus (8)

Scotland 2-0 Macedonia (9)

DREW

Denmark 1-1 Portugal (1)

Moldova 0-0 Luxembourg (2)

Poland 1-1 Northern Ireland (3)

Slovakia 2-2 Czech Republic (3)

France 1-1 Romania (7)

Norway 1-1 Iceland (9)

RANK CHANGES

Sweden 4th to 3rd; Portugal falls (1)

Switzerland 2nd to 1st; Greece falls (2)

Poland 4th to 3rd; Slovenia falls (3)

Austria 4th to 3rd; Lithuania falls (7)

Macedonia 2nd to 4th; Scotland and Norway move to 2nd and 3rd (9)

OH SHIT! MOMENT

Honorable mention goes to Georgia, who were on such good terms with their asleep-at-the-wheel Italian opponents that they gave them not one but two own goals to ensure their run at the Finals would not be disturbed.

But in the end there’s not much contest.  Julian Escudé, a hapless French center back, attempted a move (a slide tackle?) that went badly, badly awry.  In the process he blew the game for France and perhaps any chance at automatic qualification for his side.

WHAT THE FUCK?! MOMENT

Stephan Andersen, Denmark’s goaltender, put in a performance that can only be described as inspired.  He repeatedly faced down a Portuguese side that was at first uncoordinated but became more aggressive and desperate as the game went on.  When a Portuguese corner was finally knocked in off the tip of a scalp late in the game, however, Andersen promptly fell backwards so theatrically that initially you thought he’d really been injured.  The match official wasn’t duped and booked Andersen, still lying in his own net, for demonstration.

WINNERS

... but theyll never take OUR FREEDOM!

... but they'll never take OUR FREEDOM!

Scotland – Just when it couldn’t get any worse, the gods knelt down and kissed the Scots on the forehead.  Not only did they manage a respectable 2-0 win over Macedonia to regain second place but Norway tied Iceland. It wasn’t the best outcome the Scots could hope for, but it was close. If the faltering Macedons can hold Norway to a tie, or defeat them outright, the Scots may yet have a chance – especially if they can see off the heretofore impenetrable Dutch.

They’re not out of the woods yet, but Scotland’s team bears more than passing resemblance to their Prime Minister: Write them off if you like, but they couldn’t care less.  In the process they may, very pleasantly, make a fool of me.

Switzerland

Their convincing win against Greece vaults them back into first place in their group.  They’ll stay there.

Slovenia

Never that I know of has a team that didn’t even play done so well. (Though I suppose they did play, a respectable 2-1 loss to England in a friendly.)  Every other contender in their group drew their matches today, which makes Slovenia’s path to the top that much easier in that screwy fucked up group.

Ukraine

They ran up a 5-0 win over Andorra which they very desperately needed.  Now they’re only one goal off from Croatia (factoring in that the latter has played more games) and they still have a fixture against the Andorran schills.  Both play England yet; it will be crucial that neither lose badly.

LOSERS

Portugal

One useless man is called a disgrace...

Their course back to relevance was hard enough, even with the return of Ronaldo for what was supposed to be a win over group leaders Denmark (which I and the rest of the world gave them).  But they didn’t have it.  While Sweden’s win is a boon for them since it keeps the battle for 2nd place close, they would ideally like to be in the hunt for the top spot.  They were. Now they’re gasping for breath, and embattled second-place Hungary (who they face in two of their last three) will not just roll over and die.

France

They’ve been asking for this with shoddy play and poor coordination.  But giving up a game that, thanks to their previous missteps, was a must-win – and to an own goal at that – is really baffling.  There was no reason they couldn’t win.  There was no reason they shouldn’t win.  And yet they did not.  If they weren’t the runners-up in 2006 I would say they had absolutely no place being in contention.  Far from first place, I’m beginning to wonder if they’re really secure for second.

Something still tells me Serbia’s luck will run out.  But not yet.

Stay tuned for this Wednesday and Thursday.  Big fixtures include Portugal at Hungary, Turkey at Bosnia, France at Serbia, and anything in Groups 3 or 9. (The latter will be decided that day.)

Previous: Group 1, Group 2, Group 3, Group 4, Group 5, Groups 6 & 7

Group 8: A Papist Potpourri

Participants: Italy, Bulgaria, Irish Republic, Cyprus, Georgia, Montenegro

grp8

A pretty weak group overall has Italy in the lead with the Irish visible in their rearview mirror.  Second-seeded Bulgaria has clearly been sold above its market value despite holding Italy to a 0-0 draw.  (10 of the 19 matches in this group so far have been draws.  Bits of them are sprinkled fragrantly all over the group.  They are sickly-sweet.)

Despite the frustrating number of draws and the obtuse grid of victories and losses, it’s pretty clear that the field is the Irish, the Italians and everybody else.  Everybody else has no chance of breaking out – none of the teams are that bad, but none are good enough to make a mark.  This creatres a mouth-watering opening for the Irish team, who have only been to the World Cup three times in 80 years of competition – all three since 1990.  They seem, haltingly, to be seizing this advantage.

The closeness of the top two is belied by the fact that the Irish have played an additional game (a draw), and the Italians have only taken a draw each to the Irish and Bulgarians.  The Irish have those plus additional draws to Montenegro and Bulgaria again.  Italy can expect to walk away with (relatively) easy wins from Georgia and Cyprus while I can make no such assurances about the Irish team; even draws against Bulgaria and Ireland a second time would give the Italians 22 points, which would get them over the top with a little room to spare.  The Irish would meanwhile require three straight wins to hit 22, and even then the Italians would come out ahead if they won their other games.  I don’t think it particularly likely that anyone will win any number of games straight, and I would definitely predict that whoever clears this group will qualify with fewest points in UEFA.

But neither of the leaders are likely to lose either.  This is bad for Ireland, as they need a major Italian stumble given the math they’re facing to hope to edge them out for the top spot.  I don’t think they’re going to get it, and it’s actually much more likely that the Irish trip and fall.  They’ll need their vaunted luck if they want to change the dynamics of the group this late in the qualifiers.

Prediction: Italy to qualify at the top.  Ireland to come in a fairly weak second.  The last thing the coach for Bulgaria will draw is probably a pistol.

Group 9: Can anyone untie the Gordian knot?

Participants: The Netherlands, Scotland, Norway, Macedonia, Iceland

grp9

This group was going to be fairly straightforward until today.  For some reason when I first compiled all this I checked back, saw Scotland’s game against Norway, and said to myself, “Wait awhile.”  Perhaps it was bad luck, but the wait rewarded me with the sight of the Tartan Army being violently thrown back at the gates of second place by an out-of-nowhere Norway.  The gory details are here, and to them there’s little to add.

It’s all about second place now.  It is not possible for the Netherlands to come in below first place, and even if it were they’ve stormed to victory in the entire group.  That would have made Scotland’s 7 points look pretty good, even compared with Macedonia.  In a group where each team plays only eight games, and is guaranteed to lose two of them to the leader, a relatively low score is necessary to break through.  Anything above 12 points – four wins – runs away with it.

Before this afternoon Scotland was in second place, separated by Macedonia based on the goal differential.  Going down to Norway 4-0 has blown the group open.  The Scots now trail Macedonia, who move up into second place; Norway has moved up into fourth, one point behind both, relegating Iceland and their four points to the bottom.  (Iceland has only one game left to play and is now out of contention, though they still have claws.)  Despite the positions, of the three teams remaining in the battle for second Scotland is now in the most grave danger.

Scotland faces the firewall: they’ve only one game left to play.  Their match against the Netherlands is really a foregone conclusion, especially if their play has even a shadow of what took place this evening in Oslo.  (A win there would not only erase the stain of their loss to Norway but would probably be the most dramatic upset of the qualifiers.)  The Scots have got lucky in that their match against the Dutch side comes the very last, so they aren’t certain to suffer the morale shock of two defeats in a row leading into it.

The match against Macedonia is now must-win for the Scots in any scenario.  I don’t see any way out of they falter here.  Not only do they need a win, they need a blow out, to make up for the four unanswered goals Norway took out of them today.  A Norwegian win against them might help, since it doesn’t matter where the goals allowed come from; but if Norway wins against the Macedons then Scotland needs Norway to lose to no-hope Iceland.  A draw will tie them at 10 points and the Norwegians would get the better of it.

Put another way, Scotland’s course is fucking hard.  It’s also reliant on a confluence of events which taken together are not likely.  (Though an Icelandic victory is not as unlikely as it might seem based on the last meeting with their Viking ancestors, a 2-2 draw, and the Icelanders aren’t as bad as their place would suggest.)

The Macedonians need merely take a page from the book of their famed ancestor: cut through the bullshit and win.  (The gods would approve.)  A win and a draw in their last two against Scotland and Norway will clinch it (in either order).  A win and a loss puts them into a solid position, though if they have to choose they’re prefer to beat Norway: They’ll probably get the better of any tie in the final rankings with the Scots, while a Norwegian win again both Iceland and Macedonia would see them sail through.  (A win and a tie would see them go through on goal differential.)

Therein lies the beauty of what Norway bought themselves today.  It’s not just points: it’s outs.  Before today they needed to beat Scotland and nothing else would do.  Now they’ve got options, though a loss at any point will continue to doom them.  (As opposed to the Macedonians who can maybe kinda afford one.)

Prediction: Obviously the Netherlands qualifies. Until today I’d have favored the Scots to beat Norway and go forward.  But this is why I waited.  The Scots are not out but they’re being handed their hats.  My second place pick is a weak Macedonia by the slightest of edges. This one’s 52-48.